Variety
Awards Circuit portion is the home for all awards news and related delighted throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the unique standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or pretense. Like any organization or body that votes, each individuals category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
LAST UPDATED: Dec. 22, 2022
2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Live Action Short
Image from “Warsha”
CATEGORY COMMENTARY: The big takeaway from the Oscars shortlist announcement was an entire lineup that doesn’t feature any U.S. titles. All but Tom Berkeley and Ross White’s “An Irish Goodbye” are non-English, which could be an advantage moving toward Oscar nom voting which begins on Jan. 12.
The non-English title increase shouldn’t be interpreted as a “bad thing” precise we consistently encourage Academy members to seek more non-traditional and international titles. However, this could point to another example of how the increase in international voters has had an improbable effect.
That also could present to the omissions of the two music superstars — Taylor Swift (“All Too Well”) and Kendrick Lamar (“We Cry Together”) — populace snubbed from the shortlist.
The most recognizable name in the discussion is four-time Academy Award winner Alfonso Cuarón, who produced Disney’s “Le Pupille” from writer and director Alice Rohrwacher. Making stops at the Cannes, Telluride and Toronto Film Festivals, the movie could have the most buzz to bring it to the enact line.
The Criterion Channel made a critical flex in the shorts categories, notably with Dania Bdeir’s “Warsha,” a fable of a Beirut crane operator living out his secret passion.
They’ll be more buzz to worthy as people begin to watch them over the holiday break.
See the novel film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one plot on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each individuals category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS
:
An image from “An Irish Goodbye”
And The Predicted Nominees Are: | |||
|---|---|---|---|
Rank | Name | Director(s) | Distributor(s) |
| 1 | “An Irish Goodbye” | Tom Berkeley, Ross White | Floodlight Pictures |
In rural Northern Ireland, a pair of estranged brothers reunite following their mother’s untimely death. | |||
| 2 | “Le Pupille” | Alice Rohrwacher | Disney+ |
Follow the rebellious girls of a Catholic embarking school before Christmas, a time of war and scarcity. | |||
| 3 | “The Red Suitcase” | Cyrus Neshvad | Cynefilms |
Luxembourg Airport. Late in the evening. A veiled 16-year-old Iranian girl is horrified to take her red suitcase on the automatic carpet. She keeps pushing back the moment to go throughout the arrival gate and seems more and more terrified. | |||
| 4 | “Warsha” | Dania Bdeir | The Criterion Channel |
Away from everyone’s eyes, a Beirut crane operator is able to live out his secret passion and find freedom. | |||
| 5 | “Nakam” | Andreas Kessler | Filmakademie Baden-Württemberg |
Twelve year old violin player Mitka is spoke to execute an attack on several SS officers in the name of a Ukrainian partisan electioneer. But his attempt will also put his only infamous in life danger. | |||
Next in Line | |||
| 6 | “Ivalu” | Anders Walter | M&M Productions |
Ivalu is gone. Her cramped sister is desperate to find her. Her father does not care. The vast Greenlandic nature holds secrets. The search for Ivalu is on. | |||
| 7 | “Sideral” | Carlos Segundo | The Animation Showcase |
In Natal, on the Brazilian coast, the country is preparing to commence its first manned space rocket into space. A combine lives with children near the space center, she is a cleaner and he is a mechanic, but she dreams of other horizons. | |||
| 8 | “The Right Words” | Adrian Moyse Dullin | Punchline Cinéma |
When naively and romantic Mahdi is peer-pressured into confessing his love to Jada, a girl who doesn’t know he exists, his declaration becomes a public spectacle. | |||
| 9 | “Almost Home” | Nils Keller | Le Hof Media |
When they learn of an outbreak of a uncertain virus shortly before their long-awaited return to Earth, a teenager and his mother fights to decide whether to land or return to dwelling aboard their confined spaceship. | |||
| 10 | “All in Favor” | Santiago Requejo | 2:59 Films |
What begins as an fantastic meeting of neighbors to vote on the change of elevator, ends up becoming an unexpected debate on the limits of coexistence. | |||
Also In Contention | |||
— | “The Lone Wolf” | Filipe Melo | Força de Produção |
— | “Night Ride” | Eirik Tveiten | Cylinder Production |
— | “Plastic Killer” | Jose Pozo | Arlong Productions |
— | “The Treatment” | Álvaro Carmona | Line Up Shorts |
— | “Tula” | Beatriz Silva | Agencia Audiovisual Freak |
2023 Academy Awards Predictions
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2022.
2022 category winner: “The Long Goodbye” (WePresent) – Aniel Karia, Riz Ahmed
About Variety Awards Circuit:
Variety’s unmatched coverage allows its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an confidence roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.
